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UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman: Predictions, Picks & Analysis

CombatCall's data-driven read on all 11 fights — Saturday, July 18, 2026, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. Full stats and matchup analysis are free on every fight. The opening prelim picks are shown below; the rest unlock with a free email.

Main Card

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman
Middleweight · Main Event
Dricus Du Plessis
Kamaru Usman
23-3
Record
21-4
5.18
Strikes/min
4.16
48%
Str. Acc.
51%
52%
Str. Def.
55%
2.22
TD/15min
2.79

Model analysis

  • At a 5-round pace he'd clear 54.5 significant strikes in 8 of his last 10, averaging ~99 over 5 rounds.
  • Dricus Du Plessis allows about 18.4 significant strikes per round (10 fights on record).
  • Middleweight 5-round fights see ~87 significant strikes on average.
  • Our read: ~77% to go over 54.5 (projected ~91).
  • At a 5-round pace he'd clear 69.5 significant strikes in 8 of his last 10, averaging ~127 over 5 rounds.
  • Kamaru Usman allows about 16.7 significant strikes per round (10 fights on record).
Model pick
Kamaru Usman — Significant Strikes Over 54.5
Our read: ~77% to hit the over
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Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier
Christian Leroy Duncan
18-9
Record
14-2
4.42
Strikes/min
4.6
49%
Str. Acc.
58%
56%
Str. Def.
51%
0.54
TD/15min
0.4

Model analysis

  • Hit in 1 of last 5 fights
  • Jared Cannonier: Won 2 of last 5 fights
  • Christian Leroy Duncan: Lost 1 of last 5 fights
  • Jared Cannonier: Won 1 of 2 career fights vs similar opponents to Christian Leroy Duncan
  • Jared Cannonier: Won by KO/TKO or Decision in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Christian Leroy Duncan: Lost by KO/TKO or Decision in 1 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Jared Cannonier — Win by Finish
Our read: hit rate ~20%
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Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez
Lightweight
Chase Hooper
Mitch Ramirez
16-5-1
Record
8-3
4.51
Strikes/min
3.51
49%
Str. Acc.
44%
39%
Str. Def.
37%
2.49
TD/15min
0.59

Model analysis

  • Hit in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Mitch Ramirez: Won by KO/TKO or Decision in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Chase Hooper: Lost by KO/TKO or Decision in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Mitch Ramirez: Won 2 of last 5 fights
  • Chase Hooper: Lost 2 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Mitch Ramirez — Win by Finish
Our read: hit rate ~40%
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Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline
Women's Strawweight
Tabatha Ricci
Fatima Kline
12-4
Record
9-1
4.18
Strikes/min
5.01
36%
Str. Acc.
50%
57%
Str. Def.
57%
2.69
TD/15min
2.02

Model analysis

  • Tabatha Ricci: Won 3 of last 5 fights
  • Fatima Kline: Lost 1 of last 5 fights
  • Tabatha Ricci: Won by Submission or Decision in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Fatima Kline: Lost by Submission or Decision in 1 of last 5 fights
  • Tabatha Ricci: Won by KO/TKO or Decision in 3 of last 5 fights
  • Fatima Kline: Lost by KO/TKO or Decision in 1 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Tabatha Ricci — Win
Line: DraftKings +370
Our read: hit rate ~40%
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Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes
Featherweight
Tommy McMillen
Alberto Montes
10-0
Record
11-1
7.53
Strikes/min
5.26
51%
Str. Acc.
60%
55%
Str. Def.
60%
0
TD/15min
0

Model analysis

  • Hit in 4 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 3 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Alberto Montes — Win by Finish
Our read: hit rate ~80%
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Prelims

Austin Bashi vs. Jose Delgado
Featherweight
Austin Bashi
Jose Delgado
14-1
Record
11-2
1.75
Strikes/min
8.22
47%
Str. Acc.
54%
48%
Str. Def.
47%
7.81
TD/15min
1.81

Model analysis

  • Hit in 4 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 1 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 3 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 2 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Austin Bashi — Win by Finish
Our read: hit rate ~80%
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Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko
Welterweight
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Seokhyeon Ko
10-2
Record
8-0
4.77
Strikes/min
2.73
61%
Str. Acc.
59%
53%
Str. Def.
58%
2.79
TD/15min
4

Model analysis

  • Hit in 3 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Hit in 1 of last 5 fights
  • At a 3-round pace he'd clear 30.5 significant strikes in 1 of his last 1, averaging ~66 over 3 rounds. On only 1 fight of history we lean his projection toward the division average, so the number below sits under that raw pace.
  • Seokhyeon Ko allows about 10.6 significant strikes per round (2 fights on record, thin sample — weighted toward the division average).
  • Welterweight 3-round fights see ~33 significant strikes on average.
Model pick
Seokhyeon Ko — Finish in Round 1
Line: DraftKings +550
Our read: hit rate ~60%
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Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs. Felipe Franco
Light Heavyweight
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Felipe Franco
5-0
Record
10-2
4.5
Strikes/min
2.23
78%
Str. Acc.
71%
22%
Str. Def.
35%
0
TD/15min
6.08

Model analysis

  • At a 3-round pace he'd clear 15.5 significant strikes in 1 of his last 1, averaging ~21 over 3 rounds. On only 1 fight of history we lean his projection toward the division average, so the number below sits under that raw pace.
  • Light Heavyweight 3-round fights see ~30 significant strikes on average.
  • About 57% of light heavyweight 3-round fights end early — a finish is the main way this over misses.
  • Our read: ~62% to go over 15.5 (projected ~29).
  • No recent significant strikes history on file.
  • Felipe Franco allows about 9.9 significant strikes per round (1 fights on record, thin sample — weighted toward the division average).
Model pick
Felipe Franco — Significant Strikes Over 15.5
Our read: ~62% to hit the over
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Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll
Flyweight
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
12-3
Record
8-3
4.69
Strikes/min
3
44%
Str. Acc.
34%
69%
Str. Def.
48%
1.75
TD/15min
2.55

Model analysis

  • Hit in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Stewart Nicoll: Won by KO/TKO or Decision in 2 of last 5 fights
  • Alden Coria: Lost by KO/TKO or Decision in 0 of last 5 fights
  • Stewart Nicoll: Won 2 of last 5 fights
  • Alden Coria: Lost 0 of last 5 fights
Model pick
Stewart Nicoll — Win by Finish
Our read: hit rate ~40%
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RJ Harris vs. Alvin Hines
Heavyweight
RJ Harris
Alvin Hines
5-0
Record
7-1
—
Strikes/min
5.47
—
Str. Acc.
31%
—
Str. Def.
38%
—
TD/15min
1

Model analysis

  • At a 3-round pace he'd clear 22.5 significant strikes in 1 of his last 1, averaging ~82 over 3 rounds. On only 1 fight of history we lean his projection toward the division average, so the number below sits under that raw pace.
  • Heavyweight 3-round fights see ~28 significant strikes on average.
  • About 63% of heavyweight 3-round fights end early — a finish is the main way this over misses.
  • Our read: ~55% to go over 22.5 (projected ~34) — basically a coin flip, just how the line's set.
  • No recent significant strikes history on file.
  • Alvin Hines allows about 10.0 significant strikes per round (1 fights on record, thin sample — weighted toward the division average).
Model pick
Alvin Hines — Significant Strikes Over 22.5
Our read: ~55% to hit the over
Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa
Women's Flyweight
Anna Melisano
Dione Barbosa
6-1
Record
9-4
—
Strikes/min
2.27
—
Str. Acc.
45%
—
Str. Def.
66%
—
TD/15min
2.23

Model analysis

  • Anna Melisano: Won 5 of last 5 fights
  • Dione Barbosa: Lost 2 of last 5 fights
  • Dione Barbosa: Lost 3 of 7 career fights vs similar opponents to Anna Melisano
  • No recent significant strikes history on file.
  • Dione Barbosa allows about 15.5 significant strikes per round (5 fights on record).
  • Women's Flyweight 3-round fights see ~49 significant strikes on average.
Model pick
Anna Melisano — Win
Line: DraftKings +455
Our read: hit rate ~61%

FAQ

Who does CombatCall's model pick on UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman?

CombatCall's model produces a pick for every fight on UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman. The opening prelim picks are shown free on this page; the rest unlock with a free email signup.

How are CombatCall's UFC predictions generated?

Each pick is generated from fighter history, matchup style data, and the current market line — not opinion. CombatCall is an analytics tool, not gambling advice.

Is CombatCall free?

Yes — you can see the opening prelims free, and a free email signup unlocks the full card's model picks. A paid subscription unlocks every event in full.