RJ Harris vs. Alvin Hines: Prediction & Pick

Model analysis

• At a 3-round pace he'd clear 22.5 significant strikes in 1 of his last 1, averaging ~82 over 3 rounds. On only 1 fight of history we lean his projection toward the division average, so the number below sits under that raw pace.
• Heavyweight 3-round fights see ~28 significant strikes on average.
• About 63% of heavyweight 3-round fights end early — a finish is the main way this over misses.
• Our read: ~55% to go over 22.5 (projected ~34) — basically a coin flip, just how the line's set.
• No recent significant strikes history on file.
• Alvin Hines allows about 10.0 significant strikes per round (1 fights on record, thin sample — weighted toward the division average).